Trends and Forecasts for the Quebec Real Estate Market in 2024

As we approach the end of 2023, a careful look at the trends and forecasts of the real estate market in Quebec in 2024 is necessary.

Summary of the Real Estate Market in Quebec in 2023

• Interest rates: Marked by a significant increase, reaching 5% in July 2023, strongly influencing market conditions.
• Constructions down: Notable reduction in constructions, particularly in the Montreal metropolitan area with 58% less compared to the previous year.
• Price increase: The aggregate price of a property in the Greater Montreal area increased by 8% in the 4th quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, according to Royal LePage.

Forecasts for the Real Estate Market in Quebec for 2024

• More expensive mortgage renewals: 28% of mortgages in Quebec will have to be renewed within 18 months. High-interest rates will result in more expensive mortgage renewals, impacting homeowners’ finances.
• Increase in property taxes: For Montreal owners, an increase of 4.9% for residential buildings and 4.6% for non-residential buildings is expected.
• Extended loan terms: In response to rising rates, borrowers are expected to opt for longer-term loans to minimize monthly payments.
• Decrease in interest rates: According to Statistics Canada, a decrease in interest rates could occur, influencing mortgage rates. For its part, the Bank of Canada is curbing enthusiasm.
• Decline in transactions: Anticipated in Montreal, reflecting a general slowdown in sales in the province.
• A more resilient market in Quebec: In Quebec, the average residential sales price should remain unchanged in 2024, but the market should rebalance. In the meantime, Montreal should move towards a buyer’s market in 2024 according to RE/MAX.
• Insufficient construction: The APCHQ expects to see 46,000 new homes built in Quebec in 2024, an increase of 15% compared to 2023.
• Impact of inflation: The Quebec Ministry of Finance forecasts an increase of 2.71% in inflation, which could continue to affect the cost of living and the real estate market.

In summary, the real estate market in Quebec in 2024 is expected to experience significant adjustments, both from the point of view of interest rates, property prices, and the availability of housing. These elements highlight the importance for market participants to remain vigilant and adaptive in the face of a constantly changing environment.